ukraine and the forex crisis
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Ukraine and the forex crisis

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Although Russian markets are closed for a public holiday, offshore trading shows a continued sell-off in Russian USD debt. We take a look at the cross-market reaction to the latest developments in Ukraine. Those treaties allow the Russian military to enter those republics and act in case of an 'external military threat'. DLPR has territorial claims over the enlarged Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, but Russia indicated that it hopes for a diplomatic resolution.

So far, there have been no confirmed cases of direct military contact between the Russian and Ukrainian military, but there are OSCE reports of numerous ceasefire violations alongside the borders of DLPR and Ukraine-controlled territory. Perhaps more importantly, US president Biden indicated that the announced measures are just the first tranche. There has been no trading of local currency OFZ Russian sovereign bonds today, but the more liquid USD Eurobond has sold off further, with yields another 50bp higher near 6.

In light of new prohibitions to trade Russian sovereign bonds in the secondary market, for new debt issued from March 1st onwards, investors will watch carefully for the performance of OFZs when they re-open tomorrow. Prior to the sovereign debt sanction announcement, non-residents held RUB2. Russia is now experiencing the fifth consecutive month of foreign portfolio outflows from OFZ.

The rouble initially took the new sanctions in its stride but remains vulnerable. In focus for the FX market will be the issue of whether counter-party risk considerations start to show up in Russian FX swap curves. For a deliverable currency, such as the rouble, there should only be one FX swap curve. Currently, one month offshore RUB implied yields are trading at Any fears of broader sanctions could see this spread widen further. It seems fair to say that FX markets continue to price more benign outcomes.

One can only assume that the broader FX market believes this will be the extent of the Russian incursion. Understandably, the relative performance of FX has been a function of geographical proximity and dependence on energy imports although the Japanese yen has outperformed here. When compared to their rise since last summer, the reaction of traded interest rates to the current crisis has been muted.

For instance, 10Y Treasury yields, for many the first port of call for safe-haven flows, are only 7. There are two complementary explanations for this. First, it is possible that market participants have taken a sanguine view on the impact of the recent escalation on the performance of DM risk assets and on growth.

Second, the safe-haven flow is dented by the prospect of a further rise in yields justified by sticky inflation and tightening central banks. Only time will tell if the first assumption is correct. The second is easier to assess. In theory, that effect should be stronger on the European rates curve than on their American counterparts.

The threat of inflation also points at a curve flattening bias if the situation worsens. At the very least, this argues for caution and justifies a pause in the rise in yields. The proximity of the flurry of March central bank meetings is another reason to expect rates to trade without much direction, provided no further escalation.

We still feel spreads are now heading into oversold territory and could potentially approach the wide spreads seen in mid and mid When compared to both mid and mid, we determine a new high end of the range to be 80bp for the iTraxx main now at 70bp and 83bp for the ICE BofA Euro non-financial index now at 68bp although, in a more stressed environment, spreads could reach levels last seen in early USD spreads reacted less off the news, but have been consistently seeing a slow widening over the past months, underperforming EUR spreads.

Credit curves have been flattening slightly. The yr area of the curve is still looking rather expensive versus swaps, while the flattening is seen on the long end rebounding slightly. We still prefer the belly of the curve for now. Real Estate has also been under pressure from supply, as this is becoming a high beta new sector.

Meanwhile, the TMT sector has been rather stable. Please read our report Credit Overshoots for more information on positioning. Commodities have been pricing in a fairly large risk premium as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate. This is not a surprise, given the powerhouse that Russia is when it comes to commodities. This is particularly the case for crude oil, natural gas, palladium, platinum, nickel, aluminium and wheat. Support center. Capital System status. Get the app.

Log In Trade Now. My account. Share this article Tweet Share Post. In this article: Natural Gas Natural Gas 8. Have a confidential tip for our reporters? Get In Touch. Rising energy prices fuelled RUB and commodity currency gains in Before looking closely at how different currencies may react to the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is necessary to take a step back to understand the current situation in the energy market and its implications for the forex market.

GME Swap Short:. Trade now. AAPL GOOG TSLA What is your sentiment on Natural Gas? Vote to see Traders sentiment! Market sentiment: Bullish Bearish. You voted bullish. You voted bearish. Give Natural Gas a try. Start trading. Try demo. Russia FX reserves — Credit: Tradingview. How will the Russia—Ukraine tensions affect the energy market? Will Ukraine crisis and inflation trigger a gold supercycle? What You Need to Know The week ahead update on major market events in your inbox every week.

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Ukraine and the forex crisis Morgan name. A Ukrainian army officer looks at his phone in a local train in Kyiv. Serving the world's largest corporate clients and institutional investors, we support the entire investment cycle with market-leading research, analytics, execution and investor services. Issuers from these sectors stand to benefit from either rising rates or higher commodity prices. Morgan normally make a market and trade as principal in securities, other financial products and other asset classes that may be discussed in this communication. Corporate Responsibility.
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Forex News: 25/02/2022 - Big tech defies Ukraine crisis to stage massive turnaround

Foreign exchange pricing has been severely affected by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but has not always followed the pattern typically seen. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has initiated pockets of forex (FX) volatility with U.S. dollar (USD) / Russian ruble hitting all-time highs. Moves in the broader. The first sign of this pressure was turbulence in the foreign exchange market and a slide in the value of the hryvnia (UAH) – the national.