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The rest of the time, the robotaxi is milling around or charging, picking up small trips here and there. Tesla can charge fees for traffic. It can double up on the passengers to compensate. Or it can increase the base rate charged per mile. An Autonomous Ride-Hail Revenue of billion is a big number. Huge, honestly. How much revenue Tesla can pull in depends on how Tesla prices the service and when the service is ready.
In our exercise, a large portion of every Tesla produced in history will need to have FSD purchased and enabled. Based on the above numbers, it makes lots of sense to put your vehicle in the robotaxi pool. Will private sale of Teslas to individuals stop or be reduced?
If Tesla does that, it realizes all of the benefit of the robotaxi, and it needs a far lower number of passenger miles per day to be viable, which increases the chance of success. It would be a gutsy move. To do that, though, many things would have to go right, including production growth, FSD becoming feature complete, many people purchasing Tesla vehicles with FSD and adding it to the robotaxi fleet, and high passenger miles per day from the robotaxi fleet. Elon is late on his promises, but he delivers eventually.
The author has no plan to add or buy Tesla shares for the next 72 hours. Vijay Govindan is a Cleantechnica writer part-time. Through his writing Vijay seeks to elevate the realized potential of humankind. Against human trafficking. Tesla Model 3 LR owner. His claim to fame is Tesla and Elon have commented, liked or re-tweeted an article he wrote with the Tesla community.
Just once. Long Tesla shares. Has a healthy skepticism of the Q branch of the Tesla investment community. Support our work today! Advertise with CleanTechnica to get your company in front of millions of monthly readers. Wall Street has faced major selloffs over the past few weeks, causing a continued downturn in the market.
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Contact us here. Users can change the 5 key drivers of the model in cells HH17, as well as 28 other inputs in cells H Note that because our price target is derived from a Monte Carlo analysis, there is no one single bear and bull case, but ARK has given example inputs for a bull and bear case in columns J and K. One can also change the price per mile for an autonomous robotaxi. We have added an input that allows users to adjust factory utilization and realized average selling price ASP assumptions for Note that these changes have adjusted our bear, bull, and expected value price targets for Tesla in The second model allows the user to change the underlying inputs but does not provide a probabilistic outcome.
The third model allows the user to change both probabilities and inputs. The output is a probability weighted average price for Tesla in the year , as well as a bull and bear case. This model allows users to provide their own inputs for a fundamental-based valuation of Tesla.
The output of the model is a probability weighted average value and financial metrics in the year This model allows users to provide a range of inputs for a bottom up valuation of Tesla. Note, the distribution of price targets arising from the Monte Carlo simulation would imply a narrower bull vs bear outcome-range than our manual tuning would suggest.
We still believe that the broader dispersion of outcomes is a more likely outcome due to capital markets reflexivity—if things are going poorly for Tesla then the debt markets will treat them more skeptically, and vice versa—whereas the Monte Carlo simulation treats capital markets receptiveness independently of financial performance. You may not use the material for commercial purposes without first obtaining written permission.
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute, either explicitly or implicitly, any provision of services or products by ARK. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice and is not to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Investors should determine for themselves whether a particular service or product is suitable for their investment needs or should seek such professional advice for their particular situation.
This material is intended only to provide observations and views of the author s at the time of writing, both of which are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Certain of the statements contained herein are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on ARK's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic, and industry conditions. ARK's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy,sell, or hold any security. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list.
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We believe that there is a 25% probability that Tesla could be worth $5, per share or more in Source: ARK Investment Management LLC. ARK's price target for Tesla is $ ARK's bear and bull case suggest it could be worth $ and $ per share, respectively. An excerpt from our financial valuation model of Tesla - GitHub - ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model: An excerpt from our financial valuation model.